What could Trump's second term bring?
The 2024 U.S. presidential election concluded with a notable return to office for Donald Trump, who secured the presidency in a closely watched race against incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris. With this victory, Trump is set to lead the country into a new term marked by pressing economic and technological challenges. Key industries like AI and space exploration—areas closely aligned with powerful advocates such as Elon Musk—are likely to see shifts in federal support and regulatory oversight. As the U.S. economy faces both uncertainties and opportunities, this post-election outlook examines the potential directions under the incoming administration, assessing impacts on innovation, technology policy, and economic growth in the years ahead.
AI
The re-election of Donald Trump introduces a new era of possibilities for artificial intelligence, a sector increasingly central to the U.S. economy and global competitiveness. With key voices like Elon Musk, an outspoken AI advocate and advisor on technological advancement, aligned with Trump’s campaign, there’s speculation about accelerated AI development initiatives. Trump’s administration may lean towards a less restrictive regulatory environment, likely prioritizing innovation over potential bureaucratic hurdles and the influence of NGOs, appealing to tech communities like the e/acc (effective accelerationism) movement. The e/acc community, which champions rapid technological advancement, is optimistic about an environment that might encourage swift progress in AI without the stringent oversight often advocated by more cautious factions. This direction could potentially support cutting-edge developments in generative AI, autonomous systems, and military applications, aligning with Trump’s previous stance on boosting America’s technological dominance on the global stage.
In October 2023, the Biden administration introduced a comprehensive executive order on artificial intelligence, implementing stringent oversight requirements to enforce ethical standards and public safety measures. The directive requires companies to follow extensive federal protocols aimed at addressing privacy, algorithmic bias, and other potential risks. These protocols are widely viewed as invasive, imposing substantial compliance obligations and granting the government significant influence over AI development. For instance, the government could scrutinize algorithms for perceived discrimination or bias, even in cases where companies maintain that such issues are not present. Such requirements may restrict innovation by forcing companies to adapt to government-defined standards, potentially putting U.S. firms at a disadvantage compared to less-regulated competitors, such as those in China.
However, with Trump’s return to office, there is a strong expectation that this order will be repealed. His campaign has argued that the executive order’s regulatory approach could inhibit AI innovation by adding bureaucratic layers and slowing development timelines. By removing these restrictions, the Trump administration aims to enable a faster-paced AI industry, focusing more on technological advancement than on regulatory oversight.
Space
With Donald Trump’s return to office, the U.S. space industry is anticipated to undergo renewed momentum, particularly with the involvement of Elon Musk. Some expect that Musk’s ambitious goals for SpaceX, including human missions to Mars, may align closely with Trump’s interest in establishing American leadership in space. This administration is likely to encourage more frequent lunar missions and a clear path toward Mars, backed by federal support and streamlined partnerships with private space firms. With Musk’s focus on advancing the capabilities of SpaceX’s Starship for long-term human space travel, there is hope within the industry that the U.S. will take decisive steps toward Mars exploration and other deep-space ventures.
However, this renewed push comes against a backdrop of criticism over NASA’s and the broader government’s pace in the space sector. Some have argued that U.S. space initiatives, while ambitious, have been hindered by bureaucratic delays and insufficient funding, slowing progress in comparison to other nations. NASA’s Artemis program, aiming to return astronauts to the Moon, has encountered multiple delays, often attributed to shifting priorities and administrative roadblocks. This has led to frustration among proponents of rapid space advancement, such as myself, who believe that a streamlined approach led by multiple private companies could achieve these goals more efficiently. With Musk’s vision and Trump’s willingness to back private space initiatives, there is hope within the industry that these barriers might be addressed, bringing ambitious space goals within close reach.
Economy
President Trump's economic strategy emphasizes reducing taxes and implementing higher tariffs to stimulate domestic production and address trade imbalances. He advocates for extending the 2017 tax cuts, aiming to lower corporate tax rates to encourage business investment and economic growth. Additionally, Trump proposes imposing substantial tariffs on imports, particularly from countries like China, to protect U.S. industries and reduce the trade deficit. While these policies are intended to bolster the domestic economy, they have sparked debate among economists.
Critics argue that increased tariffs could lead to higher consumer prices and potential retaliatory measures from trading partners, potentially impacting global trade dynamics. Supporters, however, believe that such measures could revitalize American manufacturing and strengthen the nation's economic position. This economic approach comes at a time when the economy was the main concern for voters, reflecting widespread interest in policies that support job security, domestic industry, and price stability.
As the transition of power from Biden to Trump unfolds, we will have to wait and see how these anticipated changes take shape and influence the nation's economic, technological, and strategic landscape.